Natural Gas Weekly Technical

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas' fall from 2.759 continued last week and reached as low as 2.231, just inch above mentioned 61.8% retracement of 1.902 to 2.759 at 2.229. Near term outlook remains bearish as long as 2.487 resistance holds. As noted before, We're favoring the case that rebound from 1.902 is already finished at 2.759. Deeper decline is expected ahead to retest 1.902 low next.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 6.108 is still in progress as natural gas stays well inside the long term falling channel. Rebound from 1.902 is viewed as a correction in the larger down trend only. It's a bit earlier to conclude that the whole correction has completed at 2.759 already, as there might be another rising leg. But even in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 4.983 to 1.902 at 3.079 and bring down trend resumption. Eventually, a new low below 1.902 is anticipated.
In the longer term picture whole down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is still in progress, so is that from 15.78 (2005 high), as there is no sign of reversal. Another fall could be seen to 1999 low of 1.62 on resumption.
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract Monthly Chart

http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/technical/natural-gas-weekly-technical-outlook-2012060922018/

Crude Oil Weekly Technical

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil turned into sideway consolidation after edging lower to 81.21 initially. Recovery was limited by 4 hours 55 EMA but there was no follow through selling. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd likely see more consolidative trading ahead. Above 87.03 will bring another rise but upside should be limited by 92.21 resistance and bring fall resumption eventually. Below 81.21 will send crude oil through 80 psychological level to test on 74.95 key support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.84 are developing into a three wave consolidation pattern. And, the third leg should have already started at 110.55. Deeper fall should eventually be seen to 74.95 low and possibly below. Though, we'd likely see strong support from 64.23 cluster level, 61.8% retracement of 33.20 to 114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise. Hence we'll look for reversal signal below 74.95.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Monthly Chart

Silver Weekly Technical Outlook International

Silver's rebound was limited at 29.865 last week, well below mentioned 38.2% retracement of 37.48 to 26.73 at 30.83 and weakened sharply since that. Consolidation from 26.73 could have completed at 29.865 already and initial bias is mildly on the downside for 26.145/73 support zone. Sustained break there will confirm resumption of whole decline from 37.48. Above 29.865 will delay the bearish case and bring another recovery. But we'd stay bearish as long as 30.83 fibo level holds.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 26.15 should merely be a consolidation pattern only and has completed with three waves to 37.48. Fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the medium term decline from 49.82 high and should extend through 26.145 to 61.8% retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 and below. Though, break of 30 psychological will raise the chance of one more rising leg before consolidation from 26.15 completes.
In the long term picture, the main question remains on whether 49.82 is a medium term or long term top. Current development is favoring the latter case. Though, we'd prefer to see sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 to confirm. Otherwise, price actions from 49.82 could merely be developing into a sideway pattern.
Comex Silver Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Monthly Chart

http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/technical/silver-weekly-technical-outlook-2012060922020/

Gold Weekly Technical Outlook international

Comex Gold (GC)

Gold's rebound was limited at 1642.4 last week and weakened sharply since that. Price actions from 1526.7 to 1642.4 should be a three wave correction pattern that's finished. Hence, deeper decline is favor ahead through 1526.7 to 1500 psychological level. Though, we'll look for reversal signals again below 1500. On the upside, above 1642.4 will invalidate this bearish case and indicate that fall from 1792.7 has completed already. In such case, bring stronger rebound should be seen to 1700 and above instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions form 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7 resistance is needed to be the first signal of up trend resumption. Otherwise, the consolidation would extend further.
In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Monthly Chart

   


source:http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/technical/gold-weekly-technical-outlook-2012060922021/

ECONOMIC NEWS AND DATA

INDIA:-

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) DATA UPDATES:-

FY12 GDP at 6.5% Vs 6.9% (YoY)

FY12 GDP Sectoral Performance (YoY)

Mfg Sector at 2.5% Vs 7.6%

Farm Sector at 2.8% Vs 7%

Mining Sector at -0.9% Vs 5.00%

Construction sector at 5.3% Vs 8%

Industry Growth at 3.4% Vs 7.2%

Service Sector Growth at 8.9% Vs 9.3%

Q4 FY12 GDP Numbers (YoY)

Q4 GDP at 5.3% Vs 6.1%

Q4 FY12 GDP Sectoral Performance (YoY)

Mfg Sector at -0.3% Vs 7.6%

Farm Sector at 1.7% Vs 7.5%

Mining Sector at 4.3% Vs 0.6%

Construction sector at 4.8% Vs 8%

Industry Growth at 1.9% Vs 7.00%

Service Sector Growth at 7.9% Vs 10.6%

INDIA’S APRIL TRADE DATA (YOY)

Export at $ 24.45 bn Vs $ 23.69 bn (+3.20%)

Import $ at 37.94 bn Vs 36.54b n (+3.83%)

Trade deficit at $ 13.48 bn Vs $12.85 bn (+4.90%)

May 2012 PURCHASING MANAGERS' INDEX (PMI) DATA

India Manufacturing PMI at 54.8 Vs 54.9 (MOM)

SECTORAL NEWS:-

MAY 2012 AUTO Sector Sales Numbers: - (YoY)

Maruti total sales at 98884 Vs 104073 Units (-5.00%)

Tata Motor total sales at 64,347 Vs 61,872 Units (+4%)

M&M total auto sales at 43988 Vs 34323 Units (+28.16%)

Hero Moto corp. total sales at 5.56 Lakh Units Vs 5.00 Lakh units (+11.20%)

TVS motor total sales at 1.76 lakh Vs 1.85 lakh Units (-4.86%)