Point 2 Future: Natural Gas Weekly Technical

Saturday, June 9, 2012

Natural Gas Weekly Technical

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas' fall from 2.759 continued last week and reached as low as 2.231, just inch above mentioned 61.8% retracement of 1.902 to 2.759 at 2.229. Near term outlook remains bearish as long as 2.487 resistance holds. As noted before, We're favoring the case that rebound from 1.902 is already finished at 2.759. Deeper decline is expected ahead to retest 1.902 low next.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 6.108 is still in progress as natural gas stays well inside the long term falling channel. Rebound from 1.902 is viewed as a correction in the larger down trend only. It's a bit earlier to conclude that the whole correction has completed at 2.759 already, as there might be another rising leg. But even in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 4.983 to 1.902 at 3.079 and bring down trend resumption. Eventually, a new low below 1.902 is anticipated.
In the longer term picture whole down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is still in progress, so is that from 15.78 (2005 high), as there is no sign of reversal. Another fall could be seen to 1999 low of 1.62 on resumption.
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart