Point 2 Future: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Monday, May 21, 2012

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil dropped further to as low as 90.93 last week and broke mentioned 92.52 support. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 74.95 to 100.55 at 88.55. Strong support is anticipated at this 88.55 fibo level to bring rebound. On the upside, above 94.16 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 100.68 support turned resistance and bring another fall.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.84 are developing into a three wave consolidation pattern. And, the third leg should have already started at 110.55. Deeper fall should eventually be seen to 74.95 low and possibly below. Though, we'd likely see strong support from 64.23 cluster level, 61.8% retracement of 33.20 to 114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise. Hence we'll look for reversal signal below 74.95.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart