Trend is down nifty may slip to 4700
sudarshan sukhani
On Friday, the Sensex declined 127.07 points or 0.77% to
close at 16,292.98 and the Nifty was down 36.80 points or 0.74% at 4,928.90.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Sudarshan Sukhani of s2analytics says, the
market is still in a downtrend. "I don’t anticipate a change in trend. We are
now approaching 4,800-4,700. That’s a zone where strong supportes in. So, once
we are in that zone then maybe things will change. But I think we are going to
reach that zone,� he asserts.
According to him, the market can see some small rallies, but they would really be short-covering rallies.
Also read: Don't expect Nifty to regain lost footing soon, says Udayan
Below is the edited transcript of his interview with CNBC-TV18's Udayan Mukherjee and Mitali Mukherjee. Also watch the apanying video.
Q: How are you mapping things this week for the Nifty?
A: The market is still in a downtrend. The chances are that we can get some small rallies. They would really be short-covering rallies. Beyond that, atleast today, I don’t anticipate a change or turn in trend. So, the trend is down.
We are now approaching 4,800-4,700. That’s a zone where strong supportes in. So, once we are in that zone then maybe things will change. But I think we are going to reach that zone.
Q: You have got a sell on ONGC ?
A: Yes, ONGC after that decline had some support at Rs 250-252 and a rally. It’se back to that support Rs 250. When a stockes to support there are always two possibilities; support will hold and we will see a stunning rally in ONGC. To me that’s a very, very low probability scenario. The high probability scenario is that ONGC is going to crack Rs 250-252 and move down. That’s scary, because if ONGC cracks its last support level there is nothing to hold it on the lower side. Crude prices move both ways. If crudees down then ONGC is not going to go up, it’s also going toe down. So ONGC is a short-sell today. It’s probably one of the better trades for the day.
Q: Has ITC also been breaking important price levels?
A: Yes, in fact we had one day news based rally when suddenly people thought this is going to benefit ITC. But that fell far short of the previous stops and then ITC started declining so that was an exception rather than the trend. ITC’s important levels wille at Rs 225 which is where the target for my current decline is. So till then we are only seeing the continuation of a downtrend thates to support at Rs 225 but the rounding top pattern in ITC tells us that chances are Rs 225 will not hold and ITC’s slide to Rs 200 is quite possible. So today ITC is a short sell. So both ONGC and ITC should be look for selling.
Q: You are buying Idea Cellular today?
A: Yes, in fact I am buying both Idea Cellular and Bharti Airtel ; Idea probably slightly better. Idea after those big declines has been in a trading range for almost three weeks now and that is good news because it is not falling with the Nifty, it’s not falling with the index, it’s also saying maybe I am turning up. Friday’s price action was very good for this. It didn’t breakout of the trading range but it’s on the verge of doing so. So even in a declining market it’s quite possible that tel could now start outperforming and move up. So Idea remains a buy opportunity. There are some days when one feels that all of these stocks should do what one think they will do. So ONGC, ITC and Idea should do this today.
Q: Bajaj Auto is a buy?
A: Yes, Bajaj Auto is a dream buy. It came down to Rs 1,475-1,480 which was a very strong support level for the stock, it’s bounced from there. We saw that from Rs 1,900 to Rs 1,475 was apparently a correction in Bajaj Auto rather than a new bear market. A correction is a good thing because you get to buy good quality stocks at lower prices that correction in Bajaj Auto may now be getting over and at least for the time being its outperforming its other peer Hero MotoCorp so that is a good news for Bajaj Auto, people are rushing to this rather than the other one. At current prices and based on Friday’s price chart Bajaj Auto seems to be ready for a strong rally on the upside. So there is a buy here today.
Q: You have a sell on Crompton Greaves from infrastructure related space?
A: Crompton Greaves is making new lows and it is not good news. It cracks a rupee from its closing price of Rs 115-116, starts making those new lows. So Crompton Greaves is giving the impression that this is not going to stop so soon. We are probably going to see it crack Rs 100 and going to double digits.
source: http://www.istockwatch.com/company/news-details.jsp?page=technicals/trend-is-down-nifty-may-slip-to-4700-sudarshan-sukhani-_703927
According to him, the market can see some small rallies, but they would really be short-covering rallies.
Also read: Don't expect Nifty to regain lost footing soon, says Udayan
Below is the edited transcript of his interview with CNBC-TV18's Udayan Mukherjee and Mitali Mukherjee. Also watch the apanying video.
Q: How are you mapping things this week for the Nifty?
A: The market is still in a downtrend. The chances are that we can get some small rallies. They would really be short-covering rallies. Beyond that, atleast today, I don’t anticipate a change or turn in trend. So, the trend is down.
We are now approaching 4,800-4,700. That’s a zone where strong supportes in. So, once we are in that zone then maybe things will change. But I think we are going to reach that zone.
Q: You have got a sell on ONGC ?
A: Yes, ONGC after that decline had some support at Rs 250-252 and a rally. It’se back to that support Rs 250. When a stockes to support there are always two possibilities; support will hold and we will see a stunning rally in ONGC. To me that’s a very, very low probability scenario. The high probability scenario is that ONGC is going to crack Rs 250-252 and move down. That’s scary, because if ONGC cracks its last support level there is nothing to hold it on the lower side. Crude prices move both ways. If crudees down then ONGC is not going to go up, it’s also going toe down. So ONGC is a short-sell today. It’s probably one of the better trades for the day.
Q: Has ITC also been breaking important price levels?
A: Yes, in fact we had one day news based rally when suddenly people thought this is going to benefit ITC. But that fell far short of the previous stops and then ITC started declining so that was an exception rather than the trend. ITC’s important levels wille at Rs 225 which is where the target for my current decline is. So till then we are only seeing the continuation of a downtrend thates to support at Rs 225 but the rounding top pattern in ITC tells us that chances are Rs 225 will not hold and ITC’s slide to Rs 200 is quite possible. So today ITC is a short sell. So both ONGC and ITC should be look for selling.
Q: You are buying Idea Cellular today?
A: Yes, in fact I am buying both Idea Cellular and Bharti Airtel ; Idea probably slightly better. Idea after those big declines has been in a trading range for almost three weeks now and that is good news because it is not falling with the Nifty, it’s not falling with the index, it’s also saying maybe I am turning up. Friday’s price action was very good for this. It didn’t breakout of the trading range but it’s on the verge of doing so. So even in a declining market it’s quite possible that tel could now start outperforming and move up. So Idea remains a buy opportunity. There are some days when one feels that all of these stocks should do what one think they will do. So ONGC, ITC and Idea should do this today.
Q: Bajaj Auto is a buy?
A: Yes, Bajaj Auto is a dream buy. It came down to Rs 1,475-1,480 which was a very strong support level for the stock, it’s bounced from there. We saw that from Rs 1,900 to Rs 1,475 was apparently a correction in Bajaj Auto rather than a new bear market. A correction is a good thing because you get to buy good quality stocks at lower prices that correction in Bajaj Auto may now be getting over and at least for the time being its outperforming its other peer Hero MotoCorp so that is a good news for Bajaj Auto, people are rushing to this rather than the other one. At current prices and based on Friday’s price chart Bajaj Auto seems to be ready for a strong rally on the upside. So there is a buy here today.
Q: You have a sell on Crompton Greaves from infrastructure related space?
A: Crompton Greaves is making new lows and it is not good news. It cracks a rupee from its closing price of Rs 115-116, starts making those new lows. So Crompton Greaves is giving the impression that this is not going to stop so soon. We are probably going to see it crack Rs 100 and going to double digits.
source: http://www.istockwatch.com/company/news-details.jsp?page=technicals/trend-is-down-nifty-may-slip-to-4700-sudarshan-sukhani-_703927
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